Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.008048 0.009053 0.010151 0.011443 0.012925 0.014575 0.016558
2025-01-19 0.006259 0.007575 0.009137 0.011141 0.013658 0.016736 0.020818
2025-01-26 0.005390 0.006844 0.008668 0.011146 0.014460 0.018787 0.024944
2025-02-02 0.004964 0.006559 0.008654 0.011642 0.015857 0.021681 0.030499
2025-02-09 0.004448 0.006069 0.008280 0.011565 0.016409 0.023430 0.034641
2025-02-16 0.004089 0.005744 0.008076 0.011671 0.017193 0.025561 0.039603
2025-02-23 0.003716 0.005352 0.007725 0.011501 0.017514 0.026991 0.043622
2025-03-02 0.003486 0.005142 0.007612 0.011666 0.018353 0.029307 0.049407
2025-03-09 0.003230 0.004865 0.007365 0.011585 0.018767 0.030954 0.054247
2025-03-16 0.002917 0.004471 0.006900 0.011095 0.018430 0.031260 0.056665
2025-03-23 0.002730 0.004262 0.006707 0.011036 0.018821 0.032876 0.061775
2025-03-30 0.002676 0.004262 0.006853 0.011564 0.020306 0.036659 0.071737
2025-04-06 0.002447 0.003961 0.006481 0.011166 0.020085 0.037267 0.075451
2025-04-13 0.002258 0.003713 0.006183 0.010876 0.020042 0.038237 0.080159
2025-04-20 0.002135 0.003570 0.006054 0.010881 0.020569 0.040412 0.087923
2025-04-27 0.002095 0.003566 0.006171 0.011363 0.022104 0.044898 0.101922
2025-05-04 0.001979 0.003418 0.006011 0.011288 0.022475 0.046916 0.110317
2025-05-11 0.001896 0.003325 0.005945 0.011392 0.023235 0.049904 0.121766
2025-05-18 0.001788 0.003175 0.005758 0.011226 0.023383 0.051490 0.129806
2025-05-25 0.001726 0.003109 0.005729 0.011387 0.024280 0.054982 0.143832
2025-06-01 0.001642 0.002994 0.005593 0.011308 0.024614 0.057141 0.154508
2025-06-08 0.001522 0.002801 0.005288 0.010831 0.023957 0.056705 0.157371
2025-06-15 0.001454 0.002706 0.005176 0.010774 0.024304 0.058923 0.168908